Data story 07 ยท Wind map

Riding the wind

Each fall, monarchs gather at Point Pelee and Long Point on Lake Erie. Rain, wind or cold can stop them from crossing, and Parks Canada notes that they tend to move on with cold fronts. This is a real cold front from October 2026, from Environment Canada's weather model.

A male monarch butterfly feeding on purple asters
Danaus plexippus fall asters

Read it right

Every chart has limits. Here is what this one can tell you, and what it cannot.

What this shows

  • Modelled wind over Lake ErieWind 10 metres above the ground, every two hours from 1 to 3 October 2026.
  • Monarch MathHow much a wind speeds up or slows down a monarch flying south-southwest, and how long it would take to cross the lake.
  • A cold front passingThe wind turned from the southwest (a headwind for monarchs heading south) to the north (a tailwind).

What it does not show

  • The monarchs themselvesNo monarchs are tracked on this map.
  • Wind higher upMigrating monarchs often fly well above 10 metres.
  • MeasurementsThis is a weather model, not instruments.

Sources. Environment and Climate Change Canada, HRDPS 2.5 km model (MSC Datamart, Open Government Licence – Canada). Monarch behaviour: Parks Canada, Point Pelee National Park. Monarch Math: cruising speed of about 17.6 km/h (Urquhart 1960, cited in Brower and others 2006, Integrative and Comparative Biology). Map: Natural Earth. The narrated tour is read by an AI voice (OpenAI gpt-audio, via OpenRouter) from the captions you see. See Data and credits. No endorsement implied.